David Cameron is a weak leader. He won’t deliver enough of his rebels. “Pathetic” – to use one of his favourite words.
Labour won’t help because they want the reform to fail so Lib Dems vote against the boundary changes, which would lose them seats.
So the only hope is if David Cameron shows some backbone, which, at the moment, I don’t see happening any time soon.
Andrew Rawnsley has a typically enlightening article on the subject today, including this fascinating bit:
From my conversations with very senior Lib Dems I have absolutely no doubt of this: if Lords reform does not progress in September, the Lib Dems will respond by killing the redrawing of constituency boundaries which are estimated to be worth an extra dozen to 20 seats to the Tories at the next general election. Moreover, they will veto the boundary changes as an explicit act of payback for Tory sabotage of Lords reform. It won’t be a case of Nick Clegg quietly licensing his backbenchers and peers to work with Labour to vote down the boundary changes. All Lib Dems, ministers included, will vote against.<\blockquote>Tweet