Liberal Burblings

Archive for April, 2010

In fact, Clegg dealt with Boulton’s reference to the Telegraph so well, I think Clegg was done a favour by Sky.

Total hypocrisy from the Tories exposed by Richard Wilson.

It is fascinating that the Murdoch media tempered their enthusiasm for Cameron in their ‘later editions’. At first, Sky’s YouGov poll, declared suspiciously soon after the debate, proclaimed Cameron the winner and the Times’ first editions went with “Cameron nicks it“.

This was after the Sky broadcast of the debate showed obvous signs of pro-Cam/anti-Clegg slight bias, noted by many tweeters: Boulton interrupted Clegg several times, but not Cameron plus long lingering camera shots of Cameron.

Perhaps old Rupie rang up at about midnight and said “Make it ‘neck and neck’”. And so it was. The Times changed their headline to “Neck and Neck”, and so did Sky online “Clegg and Cameron neck and neck”.

However, let’s bear in mind that ComRes, ICM and Angus Reid gave Clegg as the winner and only YouGov and Populus gave Cameron as the winner.

I can now do a reality check.

Really I just laughed when I read that Clegg was nearly as popular as Churchill last Sunday. It was just unreal -the foam on the top of a cappucinno and I knew it wouldn’t last. So I didn’t go off on one about it.

But now, I think we saw yesterday a real solid achievement from Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. Really grown up stuff.

Let’s remember that Nick Robinson of the BBC has confirmed that the Tory leadership pulled in their right wing press friends one by one and tipped them off on their juiciest LibDem smear stories. And so Clegg had it with four barrels of the Tory press yesterday. Most interesting was the Benedict Brogan-led Telegraph. Brogan is a cross between a self-appointed saint and an overly anally retentive six former with loads of pens arranged in strict colour order in his outside jacket top pocket. His story about Nick Clegg yesterday was just ridiculous. Registered donors gave registered donations to a registered employer. By the end of the day Nick Clegg published his bank account statements which showed that (according to Nick Robinson): 

Mr Clegg received payments totalling £19,690 from three businessmen (Neil Sherlock, Michael Young, Ian Wright) and then paid staff costs of £20,437.30 out of the same account. According to these figures, Mr Clegg actually paid £747.30 out of his own money towards staff costs.

Stuff that in your top jacket pocket Brogan! And the Telegraph banner headline (“Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem donors and payments into his private account”) made it seem like some sort of Italian-type political bribe scandal. Bar stewards!

So Clegg survived all that and then came out top in the debate in 3/5 polls, after Cameron and Brown fired their best shots at him and after he brilliantly defended immigration and Trident policy – the two issues which the Tories had most pressed about the LibDems.

So I think we have now bottomed out, to a certain extent. The froth has cleared from the top of the cappucinno. So now I am allowing myself to be really proud of Nick Clegg and the LibDems. We have got through all that and we are now at 28% on the YouGov tracker. If you had told me last Monday that we would jump to 28% after months at 18%, I would have been ecstatic. And in fact, I am now.

Timings are + an hour for some reason. Sorry.

8:29:04 PM: I’ll be live blogging the #leadersdebate via Tweet here and accumulated blog here: http://bit.ly/8ZWOxi

8:34:08 PM: Slapometer latest: Brown 54%, Cameron 33%, Clegg 13% http://www.slapometer.com

8:39:45 PM: @mytimezoneis Europe/London

8:41:45 PM: “We want change but not in Euros” – snappy little Cameron line found on leaked notes RT@davidschnieder http://bit.ly/cD1kQi

8:44:06 PM: Live blogging the #leadersdebate http://bit.ly/bUqe2a

8:57:10 PM: This lasagne is too good to rush – #leadersdebate or #noleadersdebate

9:02:28 PM: Count Brown out if it’s about style, he says – standing their with the most impressive make-up job I’ve seen him wearing #leadersdebate

9:10:46 PM: Very powerful point from Clegg on opeartion koala #leadersdebate

9:11:37 PM: Is it me or is Cameron sounding even posher tonight? #leadersdebate

9:12:24 PM: Excellent point by Clegg on LIsbon treaty – kiboshed Cameron #leadersdebate

9:13:08 PM: Glad someone mentioned extremists and Cameron #leadersdebate

9:13:56 PM: Go NIck! #leadersdebate

9:14:23 PM: Oh come off it Brown – squabbling at bathtime #leadersdebate

9:14:48 PM: Nick Anti-american? Bovine scatology #leadersdebate

9:15:15 PM: Brown has a sort of old world charm tonight – he has nothing to lose I suppose #leadersdebate

9:21:19 PM: Quite a lot of hesitation from Brown on the Somali question #leadersdebate

9:21:52 PM: Cameron went for a run this morning. See what he did there. Slipped that in – CLUNK CLUNK #leadersdebate

9:24:48 PM: Another gift to Clegg from Cameron on Trident, Cameron walks into these doesn’t he? #leadersdebate

9:25:19 PM: Clegg very clear and passionate on Trident
#leadersdebate

9:25:41 PM: Nonsense from Brown on Iran #leadersdebate

9:26:53 PM: Strange that we ended up on Trident on a question about terrorist activity #leadersdebate

9:27:31 PM: Brown has lost it – nattering on about solar panels like a cuddly uncle #leadersdebate

9:28:06 PM: Oh good Lord – I think that may have been an attempt at wit by Cameron #leadersdebate

9:29:47 PM: Channel 4 live poll Clegg 52% Brown 36% Cameron 12% #leadersdebate

9:33:43 PM: Don’t like the set – too bitty. Channel 4 Ask the Chancellors holds the set prize so far #leadersdebate

9:35:13 PM: Absolutely irrelevant point by Cameron on LIsbon treaty/climate change #leadersdebate

9:35:51 PM: Lisbon treaty was a reforming treaty – it had nothing to do with climate change – utter rubbish by Cameron #leadersdebate

9:36:42 PM: I feel sorry for anyone who falls for Cameron’s line on his extremist partners.
#leadersdebate

9:38:18 PM: Channel 4 poll, Clegg up to 67% now – Brown on 24% – Cameron down to 9%! #leadersdebate

9:39:27 PM: Clegg very sound on the Catholic paedophile issue #leadersdebate

9:44:38 PM: Clegg is even ahead in the Times live poll – which Cameron led last time #leadersdebate

9:47:39 PM: Clegg brilliantly brushed away the Telegraph point from Boulton #leadersdebate

9:50:43 PM: Cameron’s big society pitch is a complete cop-out. He doesn’t have any policies so he fills in thegap with that
#leadersdebate

9:51:13 PM: CLegg is on a roll with safe seats
#leadersdebate

9:56:47 PM: Cameron has leapt ahead on the Slapometer 43% want to slap him right now – Brown 34%, Clegg 23% #leadersdebate http://www.slapometer.com

9:59:13 PM: Bus and rail firm Arriva agrees to takeover. For goodness sake swicth off the tickertape Sky you dingbats! #leadersdebate

9:59:57 PM: Nitwit Cameron – it’s always a mistake to mention an attack – because subliminally you just confirm it in people’s minds #leadersdebate

10:08:34 PM: @jjacollins yes but he has precious little policy to change it and instead wants the public to fill the gaping hole. It’s a cop-out
10:09:56 PM: I love the way Clegg has obviously convinced the questioner! #leadersdebate

10:12:13 PM: Channel 4 live poll now Clegg 50, Brown 30, Cameron 19 #leadersdebate

10:13:15 PM: Brown wins on folksiness #leadersdebate

10:14:08 PM: Enough on the bloody jobs tax already Cameron – it’s a .5% rise! #leadersdebate

10:15:20 PM: Brown completely fails to address the Clegg banks point.It’s not about smallness. It’s about investment v high street banking #leadersdebate

There seems to be an assumption that the Tory right wing press are “trying to dictate the political agenda” and “supporting their Tory friends through attacks on Clegg”.

Stuff and nonsense. The first duty of a newspaper is to…..er…..sell newspapers. That’s a surprise isn’t it? That is their enormous over-riding concern and that dictates what they print – not some sort of political agenda. It really is rubbish to suggest otherwise.

I am reminded of the words of Glenn Beck:

I could give a flying crap about the political process. We’re an entertainment company.

I spend a lot of time these days oscillating between Political Betting and Polling Report.

It is clear that the alleged Liberal Democrat “blip caused by the first debate” is being sustained. Particularly impressive are Clegg’s net approval numbers, which Mike Smithson of Political Betting reckons has long been a very accurate predictor of the result.

It is also clear that the LibDem bandwagon started rolling from the moment the media equal footing started, and particularly when the LibDems presented their manifesto.

It does seem quite wrong, based on the polling evidence, to call this a “first debate bounce”. It’s a ROPA (Representation of the People Act – equal/proportionate media footing for all parties)/campaign start/manifesto bounce which was then super-boosted by the debate.

That point is vital in explaining why the LibDem boost has been sustained in poll after poll for a week, with just two weeks to go to polling days, and a few days off postal vote time.

Which brings me to ITV News and ComRes. Bless them. There’s got to be an outlier in any group of polls and it seems that ComRes’ poll last night(showing the Tories way out front) was an outlier. That’s been confirmed by 5-6 polls taken after that one. I am amazed that James Mates uttered what turned out to be some very inaccurate assumptions (eg of the LibDem bandwagon ending) last night on ITV News. I hope he is somewhat more guarded tonight when, as expected, the ComRes poll repeats a similar finding due to its rolypoly/moving average nature.