Liberal Burblings

Archive for April, 2007

This evening, I had a chat with a local Tory candidate and council colleague who I am quite friendly with. He was putting up the usual stakeboards in his garden. “How’s it going?” he asked. “Very well”, I said,”Lovely weather for it.”

I do wonder whether he was hoping I would divulge our detailed canvass statistics. Some hope.

I have just cast my postal vote and made a blog posting which I will publish after the announcement of the election results on May 4th, with my election predictions for West Berkshire and Newbury. I will print off that posting later today and post it to myself, in an envelope sealed with sellotape, which I will sign across, so that I can prove through the postmark that I made the prediction today.

I am typing this post at 6am on 27th April. I will press “publish” on this posting after the actual results are announced on 4th May. Today I will print off this posting and post it back to myself in the Royal Mail, sealed in an envelope with sellotape which I will sign across, to prove through the postmark when I typed this.

For West Berkshire Council I predict this result:

Conservatives 41 seats
Liberal Democrats 11 seats

And for Newbury Town Council I predict this result:

Conservatives 16 seats
Liberal Democrats 7 seats

The Liberal Democrats locally and nationally fought a fantastically good campaign. It was first class. However, there is a tide at work at the moment. National trends, Tory phone banks, repeated letters – that sort of thing. West Berkshire is a marginal enough area as it is.

As I learnt as a kid living on the coast, you can’t fight the tide. It comes and it goes.

Us Liberal Democrats in West Berkshire and nationally have all slogged ourselves out through hard work. But then again, we fought just as hard a campaign in the mid-1990s when we won all but seven seats on Newbury District Council. But at that time the tide was with us and against the Conservatives.

We should remember the old Rudyard Kipling lines:

If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;

At the end of the day, we should be able to say that we did our very best and that we know what we believe in. In West Berkshire and nationally, us LibDems did our very best in this campaign, we clearly know what we believe in and we are our true to our beliefs. That is all that matters. The rest is tide.

Two of my friends are currently facing cancer and have days or weeks left in this world. It puts things into perspective.

It is sometimes worth asking oneself: “When I am on my deathbed (if I am lucky enough to have one!), what sort of things will I regret not doing?”

The answer for me is: I would regret it if I didn’t spend enough time enjoying my family, being with friends and enjoying God’s world – sun, dawn, sea, rivers, exercise, fresh air, real ale etc.

What I definitely won’t say to myself on my deathbed is this:

If only we had won that election….and if only I had spent more time in council meetings.

A fascinating Newsnight last night. Michael Crick is starting to make his mark as their political editor.

According to the University of Plymouth’s study of 50 recent by-elections, they predict these May 3rd results:

Conservatives on 38% and +330 seats
Liberal Democrats on 29% and +110 seats
Labour on 24% and -500 seats

This would put Labour lower than Michael Foot’s 1982 29% level and lower even than the Tories’ 25% in 1995 under Major.

They also reported that John McDonnell and Michael Meacher have made an agreement to meet when Blair resigns and compare MP signature lists. The one with the least signatures of support at that time will drop out.

The Guardian ICM poll today finds that one in three voters “have turned their backs on Labour and the Conservatives and now back the Lib Dems or a smaller party such as the Greens or the SNP.”

The Liberal Democrats, campaigning hard to defend half their council seats on May 3, rise three points to 21%.